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Norwegian aquaculture is heading into 2026 with a familiar tension. Farms are applying more operational effort to manage sea lice, while the regulatory lens remains anchored to what lice pressure means for wild salmonids. At the same time, the public narrative is already hardening around what the next Traffic Light System outcome “will” be, before the final classifications are actually set.
The important part to remember is that the Traffic Light System update is not driven by a single datapoint. It is built from (1) field monitoring and sampling, (2) model-based interpretation of those observations, and (3) a steering group process that synthesizes evidence and uncertainty before color classifications are decided. The Institute of Marine Research is explicit that model outputs are intended to be evaluated together with observations, and that the modeling work spans larger areas and longer time windows than direct observation alone can reasonably cover.
The 2026 conversation is already active
In the weeks leading up to the next Traffic Light System update, more commentary is showing up across industry media. Some recent coverage leans on the idea that the scientific picture looks broadly similar to recent years , with the emphasis on continuity and limited change. Others, including Jim-Roger Nordly in NorskFisk , focus on the practical implications of area classifications, especially in the north, where a single outcome can quickly turn into a planning constraint with real economic consequences.
What is consistent across both angles is the underlying question farms are trying to answer before the decision lands:
Are conditions trending toward more constraint or more flexibility by production area?
To ground that question in data, the rest of this analysis lines up what we can already see across wild fish exposure, modeled outcomes, farm-side lice pressure, temperature, and treatment intensity.
What the data shows across the country
Mortality exposure is still high, and still uneven by production area
This table is the most direct way to see how mortality exposure has moved by production area.
A few patterns in 2025 stand out immediately:
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High exposure is concentrated, not evenly spread. Production Area 5 is at 90% mortality exposure in 2025, and Production Area 7 is at 85%, while other areas remain far lower.
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Some areas swing sharply year to year. Production Area 2 moves from 8% (2024) to 54% (2025). Production Area 4 rises from 37% (2024) to 68% (2025).
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Some areas improve materially. Production Area 9 drops from 89% (2024) to 39% (2025). Production Area 12 drops from 42% (2024) to 8% (2025).
This is why the update can feel high stakes inside companies. The decision is not based on a single national number. It is a set of area-level classifications that can become the limiting factor for planning.
ROC and VPS add context, and uncertainty is part of the story
The ROC and VPS summary makes two things clear heading into 2026.
1) There are places where the models agree on direction.
For 2025, both ROC and VPS classify PO1 as Low and PO3 as High. Across PO4 to PO8, conclusions cluster heavily around Moderate.
Agreement matters because it reduces the interpretation gap. When both approaches land in the same place, the debate becomes less about whether there is a signal and more about thresholds, weighting, and governance.
2) Uncertainty changes how results should be read.
Even when conclusions align, uncertainty moves from Small to Medium to Large across multiple production areas, especially in VPS. A “Moderate” with Large uncertainty is not the same operational or policy situation as “Moderate” with Small uncertainty.
This matches how the Institute of Marine Research frames the role of these model products: they are meant to be considered together with observations, and they contribute to the expert process rather than replacing it.
Farm-side lice pressure stayed high through the core operational season
At a national level, female lice pressure in 2025 stayed elevated relative to the lower baseline years, with the main peak landing in the late summer and early autumn window.
This matters for a simple reason. That is the same part of the year where farms are already operating under the most constraint: treatment scheduling, wellboat availability, labor load, and welfare tradeoffs.
Mobile lice pressure shows the same seasonality. The peak pressure period again lands in the same window where farms concentrate interventions. Even without making any causal claims from these charts alone, the takeaway is practical: 2025 still looked like a heavy-pressure year operationally.
Temperature stayed high enough to keep the baseline elevated
The temperature chart reinforces what most teams already feel in practice. Even if 2025 was not higher than 2024 in every month, the system is still running warm, including into the end of the year.
Temperature is not the Traffic Light System indicator, but it is a driver of lice dynamics and the length of the season where farms are pushed into repeated interventions.
Mechanical treatment intensity keeps climbing year over year
This heatmap is one of the clearest reality checks in the full story: farms are not sitting back.
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Total mechanically treated cages rise from 12,341 (2024) to 14,340 (2025), about a 16% increase year over year.
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The July to October period remains the center of gravity. It represents about 59% of treatments in 2024 and about 53% in 2025.
This is where simplistic narratives miss the point. The question is not “are farms treating.” The question is “how much treatment intensity is now required to keep pressure from compounding, and what does that intensity cost in capacity, welfare risk, and operational stability.”
Putting it together: why 2026 still feels tight
Across the full set of charts, the direction is consistent:
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Warm conditions remain part of the baseline
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Lice pressure stays high through the same months where operations are already stretched
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Mechanical treatment activity continues to rise year over year
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Mortality exposure remains high in multiple areas, but it is uneven and shifts materially between years
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ROC and VPS show some convergence, but uncertainty is not small in several production areas
That combination is why the 2026 conversation is not going away. It is not just a policy moment. It is the point where complex biology and uneven pressure is turned into area-level classifications that shape real planning constraints.
What this means heading into 2026
The 2026 update is going to be interpreted as a win or a loss depending on where you sit. But the underlying picture is more straightforward.
Pressure stayed high in 2025. Temperature stayed elevated. Treatment intensity increased again. Mortality exposure remained high in several production areas, even as the pattern shifted across the coast. ROC and VPS provide useful context, but uncertainty still plays a real role in how results are weighed.
That is the context farms should hold onto while the headlines cycle. The classification decision is the outcome. The operating environment is what will keep defining 2026.