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Rabobank, a leading agricultural bank, recently updated their annual salmon forecast, highlighting unforeseen biological challenges affecting major markets such as Norway and Chile. Analysts from the bank have revised their forecasts for salmon harvests in 2024, primarily due to these unexpected challenges, with sea lice remaining a significant concern. While the adjusted forecasts aren’t what farms want to see, there are still reasons for the industry to be optimistic moving forward this year.
The Impact of Sea Lice on Salmon Harvests
In their November 2023 report, Rabobank initially projected optimism for 2024, suggesting a structural recovery in global Atlantic salmon production with an expected growth of 4.3%, provided no unforeseen biological issues occurred. However, by mid-2024, Rabobank readjusted these forecasts. In a recent interview with The Fish Site, Gorjan Nikolik from Rabobank noted, "During 2023 we were expecting Q4 or Q1 2024 to be the first positive quarter for a while, but the low production period has extended and extended.." This downward adjustment underscores the ongoing impact of biological challenges, particularly in the Norwegian market.
Nikolik explained that the extended low production period was largely influenced by biological challenges specific to Norway, the largest salmon-producing country. Issues such as winter wounds and high mortality rates have significantly impacted the annual projection for global salmon production. The increased use of mechanical treatments for sea lice during warmer months has further complicated the situation, as these treatments degrade the skin and mucous layers of the fish, making them more susceptible to diseases like winter ulcers.
The Vicious Cycle of Sea Lice Treatments
The increased frequency and intensity of sea lice treatments, particularly mechanical treatments, have created a vicious cycle in the salmon farming industry. Farmers must treat lice to meet regulatory requirements, but these treatments cause additional stress and make the fish more prone to other diseases and parasites. This cycle has resulted in increased mortality rates and higher costs for farmers.
Nikolik highlighted that the increased use of mechanical treatments during warmer months degrades the skin and mucous layers of the fish, leading to higher susceptibility to diseases like winter ulcers. This creates a vicious cycle where farmers need to combat lice, resulting in added stress on the salmon that accumulates over time. As the fish become more susceptible to disease and parasites, the chances of adverse outcomes increase .
Regulatory Pressures and the Traffic Light System
The Norwegian traffic light system regulates salmon production based on the impact of sea lice on wild salmon. If the impact is low, farms can expand; if high, production must be reduced. Despite increased efforts by farmers to manage lice, the impact on wild salmon has not shown significant improvement. This has resulted in no growth for farms, despite increased treatments and expenditures.
In June 2024, the Norwegian government shutdown 33 public fishing rivers in the southwest due to a significant drop in returning salmon numbers. This highlights the ongoing struggle between regulatory expectations and the actual impact of sea lice treatments on wild salmon populations.
The traffic light system, designed to balance the industry's growth with environmental sustainability, has faced criticism for its inability to find a middle ground. While farmers have increased their efforts to manage lice, the impact on wild salmon has remained high, leading to no growth in production. This regulatory framework creates an environment of increasing pressure on farmers, who must invest more in treatments each year without seeing corresponding improvements in their ability to expand operations.
A Glimmer of Hope: New Data on Sea Lice Impact
Recent data from the Institute of Marine Research in Norway offers a potential silver lining. For the first time in several years, there has been a significant decrease in sea lice exposure in some production areas. Zones 4, 5, and 6 all saw decreases of over 25% in mortality exposure numbers. For instance, production area 4's exposure numbers dropped from 78%, 64%, and 68% in 2021-2023 to 37% in 2024.
This decrease in sea lice exposure could indicate that the industry's strategies and techniques are beginning to pay off. However, it remains to be seen whether this trend will continue and whether these results can be replicated in other areas.
Improvements in Sea Lice Impact on Wild Salmon
The recent data from the Institute of Marine Research on the wild surveys of juvenile salmon leaving the rivers provides some optimism. Researchers have collected data from the southern half of Norway, in production areas 1-7, estimating the percentage of wild salmon exposed to lethal levels of sea lice. Zones 4, 5, and 6 saw significant reductions in exposure, potentially placing them back into the 'green' category based on previous benchmarks.
Production area 4, for example, showed a remarkable decrease in mortality exposure numbers, dropping from 78%, 64%, and 68% in 2021-2023 to 37% in 2024. This significant change could be the silver lining the industry has been looking for, indicating that years of strategy refinement and treatment investment are beginning to yield positive results.
Moving Forward: Signs of Optimism
The Norwegian salmon industry remains under significant pressure from both biological challenges and regulatory frameworks. While recent data offers a glimmer of hope, the long-term success of sea lice management strategies will depend on continued monitoring and adaptation. The industry's ability to balance regulatory demands with sustainable practices will be crucial in determining future growth and stability. The unfolding story of sea lice management and its impact on both farmed and wild salmon populations will be one we continue to watch closely.